Category: Population

Related directly to population issues.

Categories
Population

Take this Survey

            Most surveys that come online seem to just be gimmicks to get me interested in a cause, then ask me for money. This survey won’t ask for money—just for your opinion on human population, consumption and endangered species.

            The Center for Biological Diversity has more people working on issues of human population than any other environmental organization in the USA. They are also working on sustainability, a closely related goal. It is estimated that a human population of 2 or 3 billion could be sustained by our planet’s resources. Of course, with a current population of 7 3/4 billion people we are far into overshoot.

The main thrust of the Center is to protect Earth’s biological diversity. They have their work cut out for them. According to a recent report from the UN, an estimated million species of plants and animals are at risk of extinction in the coming decades!

The Center uses the Endangered Species Act to protect imperiled plants and animals in the USA. Their chief strategy is to protect the habitat that these species need. There is also a large group working on climate law; remember that the climate crisis is caused by overpopulation (and overconsumption). Climate change is anthropogenic, and is one of the major factors causing loss of species.

Fortunately, the Center has recognized the connection between extinction of species and human population. I keep wondering why all environmental organizations don’t see this relationship. Are they afraid that they will lose supporters? Or do religious groups pressure the environmentalists to not wander into the field of contraception and abortion?

Seven years ago, the Center for Biological Diversity surveyed people to determine their attitudes on population. Currently they are performing a similar survey now to see if attitudes have changed, and they would like your input. Some of the current questions are the same as in 2013; it will be interesting to see if the answers are different.

Here is an example of a question from the first survey that was not repeated in the 2nd:

“Have you personally seen human population growth harming the environment, or not?”

Almost half of 657 respondents (who were all registered voters) said that they had seen this effect on the environment, and the same percentage responded that they had not.

            Here is a question from the old survey that is repeated in the current one:

“If widespread wildlife extinctions were unavoidable without slowing human population growth, do you think our society has a moral responsibility to address the problem, or not?”

In 2013 sixty percent of people responded “yes” to this question, 31% said “no” and 8% were “not sure”. It will be interesting to see if there is a shift in people’s answers to this question.

            Here’s some information for social science geeks: The 2013 survey was done by landline telephone and contacted a random sample of registered voters. The current methodology is different. It is online, and will have two samples. One is randomly selected and the other is a convenience sample—people like you and me who were not randomly selected. The Center plans to report out the findings of these two samples separately.

If you live in the USA and would like to take the survey, here is the url: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/19popsurvey 

I also recommend checking out the Center’s population programs. First go to www.biologicaldiversity.org, then click on “Programs” at the top. As you scroll down the “Population and Sustainability” page you will see several links, including to their Endangered Species Condoms. There’s a place to sign up for Pop X, the monthly newsletter “…that examines the connection between unsustainable human population, overconsumption and the extinction of plants and animals around the world.”

My purpose for writing these essays on population hasn’t changed much in the past 25 years. I want to stay positive, since limiting one’s fertility is already a goal of millions of women both here and worldwide. Another goal is to present people with actions they can take to slow population growth. Most of all, I want to keep human population in people’s minds as an issue with a solution. The Center’s survey will help me and them learn what people are thinking about population. I will be able to target my essays more accurately. The Center doesn’t want to be the sole environmental organization working in the field of population. The survey will help them understand better how to get more members of the environmental community to consider population when addressing the extinction crisis.

© Richard Grossman MD, 2020

Categories
Population

Applaud Fewer Births

            The US Census Bureau recently reported that the Natural Increase (NI) of our country’s population had dropped below 1 million for the first time in decades. That is both good and bad news.

            The NI is the number of births in a year minus the number of deaths, and does not consider migration. You may already know the number of births has been decreasing gradually for a dozen years. This is good because it is an indication there are fewer unplanned pregnancies. It is also good because it means that the rate of increase of overpopulation is slowing.

            There are many demographic measures. I like the Total Fertility Rate, the number of children a woman has given birth to during her lifetime. It is easy to remember that a country with a TFR of 2.1 will reach a steady population (zero population growth) after 4 or 5 generations, if it isn’t already there. Any TFR greater than 2.1 suggests a country is growing, while less than 2.1 indicates that growth has slowed and eventually the population may even decline. A shortcoming of TFR is that death and migration rates also affect growth, but are ignored by this measure.

            The TFR of our country decreased appreciably in the past decade from 2.1 in 2009 to just 1.7 now. This change might seem small, but over generations it becomes very significant. We are on track to have a gradually shrinking population unless more people immigrate than leave the country. However, it will take decades before that happens, and immigration will probably prevent this from occurring.

            Although it is good the Natural Increase is decreasing, there are several reasons for concern. A graph from the US Census Bureau shows one: the number of deaths has increased over the past decade. Some of this rise in mortality is because there are more older people. Oldsters are more likely to die than youngsters, of course. The sad fact, however, is that the death rate among younger folks is also increasing due to drug overdoses, guns and suicides. We here in La Plata County have seen too many die from these causes. Another cause of the rise in mortality is because people are less healthy. Obesity, fast foods and lack of exercise are also taking their toll.

            Although the TFR seems to have decreased recently, this trend may not last. Women are waiting until they are older to start their families. Whereas women used to have their first baby in their late teens or early twenties, now it is common for first-time mothers to be in their late thirties or even forties. The oldest woman whom I assisted in birth was 52!

            How is this possible? Mrs. Smith (I don’t remember her real name) had been a teacher, then earned her doctorate in education and stayed on at the university as a professor. After retirement she fell in love, married and took advantage of advanced reproductive technology to conceive. All this despite having gone through the menopause! She told me that she didn’t have to worry about genetic testing because the egg had come from a young donor.

            I don’t know how I feel about sophisticated assisted reproduction. I admit that it is wonderful to see a happy, healthy baby resulting from IVF in the arms of her delighted mother. However, there are thousands of children right here in the USA who need loving, adoptive homes. 

            An increase in deaths is not my only concern about the dropping NI. With fewer babies being born our population will age—the average age of people in the USA will increase. Although there are some advantages to an aging populace, the percentage of people in the workforce is likely to diminish. Sometimes I wonder if there will be anyone to take care of me when I’m old and frail.

            Another reason to be concerned about our low TFR and the aging population is that our economic system, capitalism, is based on growth. No biological system (including humans) can grow forever. How will the end of growth play out? We have enjoyed a wonderful era of prosperity that was made possible, in part, by our growing population. Unfortunately, that expansion has been at tremendous cost which we often ignore—climate chaos, water pollution and extinction of species, among other disasters.

            Even though there will be some difficulties as our growth slows, a smaller population in the USA will be better. 

© Richard Grossman MD, 2020