Categories
Population

Consider the Gaia Hypothesis

 â€œâ€¦ nature is sending us a message.” 

Inger Andersen, Executive Director, UN Environment Program

Wet market in Shenzhen’s Luohu District, China Photo by Daniel Case

      

            We all depend on our bodies’ regulatory systems to keep us healthy and active. Without any effort on our part, many important parameters are closely controlled.

            This control of physiologic processes is called “homeostasis”, defined as “a process by which biological systems tend to maintain stability while adjusting to conditions.” Homeostatic mechanisms use feedback loops. One example involves temperature regulation. When you get cold, the thermostat in the hypothalamus of your brain notices that your blood is a tiny bit colder than it likes. It sends out messages to start shivering. When muscle action stokes your furnace enough to warm your blood, the shivering stops. Similarly, if you get too hot, your cooling system—sweat glands—go into action.

            The Gaia hypothesis holds that all living and non-living components on Earth work together to sustain life by homeostatic mechanisms. It proposes that organisms, and their inorganic surroundings on Earth, are closely integrated to form a single, self-regulating complex system, maintaining the conditions necessary for life.

            Whether or not the Gaia hypothesis is correct, it seems as though the planet is fighting back against human overpopulation with covid-19. There are several factors that have made a pandemic likely, in addition to political incompetence. They include crowded conditions, shortage of food and our amazing ability to travel.

            Most likely the novel coronavirus came from an animal in a Wuhan, China, wildlife market. These markets, selling animals for eating, are common in Asia. Even though they are illegal in some places, they still flourish because people are hungry for protein. People eat anything that can be caught, including bats, and some carry viruses that are new to humans. There have been many other zoonoses (human diseases caused by infectious agents from animals) including the “Black Plague” and Ebola. Somehow the novel coronavirus jumped from animal to human host, where it has found a receptive niche.

            This coronavirus has all the characteristics of a killer. It can be spread before, during and after illness. It is stealthy; some people shed it with few or no symptoms. Before people (especially politicians) understood how dangerous it was, it was traveling like wildfire. Wuhan is densely packed with 11 million people, crowded 15,000 per square mile. A commercial and economic center, there were plenty of visitors who spread coronavirus as they traveled. Although modern transportation helped to broadcast the disease (Covid-19), fortunately modern communication helped us recognize the problem and modern technology has helped to diagnose and treat people who get it.

            Aside from the fear and horror that we hear in the media, some people have the viewpoint that humans are at least partially responsible for causing it. Pope Francis wrote: â€œThere is an expression in Spanish: ‘God always forgives, we forgive sometimes, but nature never forgives.’ We did not respond to the partial catastrophes… I don’t know if these are the revenge of nature, but they are certainly nature’s responses.” David Attenborough (of BBC nature film fame) stated in 2013: “We are a plague on Earth. It’s coming home to roost over the next 50 years or so. It’s not just climate change…. Either we limit our population growth, or the natural world will do it for us, and the natural world is doing it for us right now.” This month a Harvard study found that COVID-19 victims are more likely to die if they lived where the air was more polluted, as from coal fired power plants. The Hindustani Times ran an article titled “The world is paying a price for the illegal wildlife trade”. Perhaps the best way to prevent the next pandemic is to protect wildlife.

            Let’s look at the bright side. The Lancet, the preeminent British medical journal, opines that the pandemic may save more lives than it kills: “Interestingly some of the health impacts of the normally functioning global economy, in particular air pollution, are so severe that the disruption caused by COVID-19 countermeasures and associated reductions in economic activity may be saving many more lives than have been lost to the COVID-19 outbreak.” Both the pandemic and climate chaos are exacerbated by overpopulation.

            Thank you for observing physical distancing! I hope that the pandemic will not end up killing too many—it is an appalling way to fight overpopulation. It is also ineffective, since the people most likely to die are too old to reproduce, and sadly, the pandemic is hitting poor people the worst.

© Richard Grossman MD, 2020

Categories
Population

Catch a Glimpse of Kenya

Image from The Hunter Legacy Film, courtesy of Hunter Sykes

            Years ago I met Dr. Rhodes Moicombo in the little African country, Swaziland (now “Eswatini”). When he learned about my interests, he told me how he had promoted family planning in Kenya.

            Right after medical school, Moicombo worked in a rural area of Kenya that had never had modern healthcare. He understood that he needed to win the respect of his future patients so came up with an idea. Knowing how much Kenyans prize children, he planned a demonstration of his medical skill using the kids. He set up shop under a large tree in the center of town and gave kids candy-flavored worm medicine. Parents were amazed and delighted the next day to find worms in their children’s poop!

            After Moicombo had established trust with his worm medicine, he started talking with the mothers about the advantages of family planning. I don’t know what methods were available to women then, but overall Kenya has been successful in lowering its fertility rate in the past half century.

            Back in the 1960s Kenya was one of the fastest growing countries in the world, with a Total Fertility Rate (the number of children that a woman bore) of about 8. Although much lower now, the TFR is still high at just over 3 children.

            Kenya had their census last year and we are just starting ours. A subscriber to Population Matters!, David Zarembka, has lived in Kenya for many years and his wife is Kenyan. Some of his recent blogs treat the results of the 2019 census.

            There are problems in getting accurate census data in any country, so it’s not surprising that the Kenyan 2009 census was marked by some “irregularities”. One of the purposes of a census is to allocate government funds. Knowing this, some enumerators (census workers) in the 2009 Kenyan census “padded” the numbers, so their region would get more money. There may have been a million “ghost” people who didn’t really exist! The Kenyan government made changes to prevent this sort of fraud in 2019. Enumerators came from outside the community, and a local “elder” accompanied each. The result of last year’s census was significantly lower than expected. There were 47.5 million Kenyans on the night of August 24, 2019.

            Zarembka is optimistic that Kenya’s growth rate is slowing. He writes: “As I look around Kenya… I notice that very few teenagers are now giving birth – one of the prerequisites for a fall in the birth rate.”

           It will be interesting to see what the USA 2020 census will bring. We know that our country’s TFR is less than replacement, but our population will continue to grow due to population momentum and immigration. Even in the USA there are difficulties in getting an accurate count, since there are some groups who want to go under the radar—undocumented migrants are an example.

            Kenya is an example of what can be done to slow population growth. Moicombo was a pioneer in introducing family planning in one area, and recently I met another innovator. Dr. Charles Ochieng is a general physician in Nairobi whose passion is providing vasectomy care. He even offered to do his father’s vasectomy for free, but was turned down. His father already has 7 children with his new wife!

            Because I’m limiting my travel due to concern about climate change, I’ll probably never visit Kenya. However, I just watched a wonderful movie, The Hunter Legacy; perhaps some of you saw it at the Durango Independent Film Festival. In addition to world-class pictures of the beautiful people, scenery and wildlife, it tells important stories. Because of rapidly increasing population, especially in the past, humans have destroyed much of the wildlife. Hundreds of animals were killed in the past to make room for settlements. We have plowed much of the wildlife habitat into agricultural fields and ­­­­­­­poachers continue to the slaughter the animals.

            The Hunter Legacy demonstrates ways of protecting wildlife using armed guards, aerial surveillance and fences to keep animals away from settlements. It also stresses the importance of slowing population growth with family planning and education.

            The movie is about J.A. Hunter, a Scot who lived up to his name as a professional hunter, cleared the land of wildlife for human settlement. The film says this about Mr. Hunter: “J.A. Hunter lived for more than 50 years in East Africa. During that time, he shifted from a focus on hunting towards a belief in conservation as concerns about wildlife populations intensified.”

            The film was made by Hunter Sykes, who lives in Durango. You can view the film at:  https://vimeo.com/ondemand/thehunterlegacy

© Richard Grossman MD, 2020

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