Categories
biodiversity Carrying Capacity Environment

Tragedy of the Commons

“In every deliberation, we must consider the impact on the seventh generation….”
Great Law of the Iroquois

 

            “They know that they shouldn’t fish closer than 500 meters from the coast, but I’ve seen these boats with their nets out just 200 or 300 meters offshore. The officials don’t enforce the laws.”

We were visiting the Greek island of Mykonos while on tour with the Durango Choral Society. We walked along the harbor with our guide, David, admiring the many small fishing boats. He explained facets of the failing Greek economy as well as the ancient and modern sites on this beautiful island. The Aegean Sea around Mykonos was so overfished, David said, that there were few fish left to catch.

We found proof that David was correct when we sat down to eat. Restaurants, even those overlooking the beautiful blue Aegean, had menus that listed few seafood dishes. Any seafood was prohibitively expensive since it had been caught in distant seas.

The situation that we encountered in Greece is a good illustration of the “tragedy of the commons”. That tragedy can occur when a limited resource is open to uncontrolled use by many people. Any one user may think he can benefit from taking as much of the resource as possible. This behavior is rational only in the narrow sense of self-interest. Regrettably, unbridled use of a resource is likely to lead to its depletion.

The term “commons” referred to pastureland that was available for everyone to graze his sheep in old England. Now it includes many different vital resources such as the air we breathe, the water we drink and the fish in the Aegean.

Most of us learned to share in kindergarten. Unfortunately, some adults never mastered that lesson or have forgotten it.  When there are many people using the same resource, any person who takes more than his share may deprive others of their fair share. Even worse, selfish people can deplete the resource, so eventually no one benefits from it.

In the case of fishing off Mykonos, there had been plenty of seafood for centuries. In the past the boats and fishing techniques only allowed small, sustainable catches, so the small proportion of sea life that ended up in nets was quickly replaced. Now, with more fishermen and more effective fishing techniques and many more mouths to feed, the fish supply has been exhausted. The Greek government has tried to prevent depletion by having a “no fish” zone, with poor results. People don’t seem to pay attention to the law, or the reason that it is needed.

Human population growth is one factor leading to the tragedy of the commons: more people using the same resource means less for all.

Ironically, some of the pollutants we have unintentionally added to drinking water may serve as a feedback mechanism to slow human population growth. Endocrine disruptors are chemicals that have unintended hormonal effects. They are found in much of our country’s drinking water. Some come from insecticides and other agricultural chemicals. Many plastics contain BPA, which has undesirable effects. Another source is the waste of women taking hormones. These chemicals have been shown to produce fish and other animals with sexual aberrations. It is possible that endocrine disruptors will lead to decreased human fertility.

The amount of fresh water on the planet is limited and, in some cases, is very slow to be replenished. The Ogallala aquifer is an example of a resource that is being used in an unsustainable manner. Much of the food grown in our country’s midwestern breadbasket depends on water from this aquifer. Tragically, there are some places in eastern Colorado (and in other states) that rely on the Ogallala where the water table has dropped 40 feet in just 15 years!

As our human population has grown, the apparent size of the commons has shrunk. Although the first few wells in the Ogallala made little difference to the water table, now we seem to be sucking it dry. Dumping waste into a river or the atmosphere made little difference with few people and fewer factories, but these resources have become toxic in our populous, industrialized nation. We are learning the problems that can be caused by abusing the commons.

The people who will suffer the most may be those who come after us, the “seventh generation” in the Iroquois law. Unless we think and plan ahead, our progeny will not have the use of many of the resources that we have enjoyed.

© Richard Grossman MD, 2012

Categories
Carrying Capacity Environment Global Climate Change

Beware of Technology

Beware of Technology—6-2010

© Richard Grossman MD, 2010

The chief cause of problems is solutions.

(Eric Sevareid)

I once sat on an airplane next to an engineer specializing in failure analysis. I told him about my “rip-stop” condom invention, which I hoped would be less likely to tear. “I’ve never had a condom break,” he said. Then his face clouded and he added: “Well, just once. In Thailand.”

As a physician I am used to things not working out as planned. There is so much variability among people it’s unreasonable to anticipate the same level of success with every patient. However, people’s faith in technology is such that we expect a perfect cell phone connection every time and spill-free offshore drilling. We are shocked when our expectations are disappointed.

I will not write about how BP grossly underestimated the amount of crude oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico with the Deepwater Horizon disaster. Neither will I dwell on the executives’ culpability in this catastrophe, nor the dishonesty that allowed industry and watchdogs to make an incestuous agreement about safety. Nor will I highlight BP’s reckless decisions and actions. I will write about the risk of our overdependence on technology.

I know a few of the local BP executives. They are intelligent, well meaning and honest. Like you and me, they are just trying to earn a living. It is not their fault that BP has taken advantage of our social and legal structure that allows large corporations to run roughshod over the environment and the rights of people.

Engineers don’t assume that their projects won’t fail. Rather, they estimate the “time to failure.” For some highly refined mechanisms, that may be many years. For complex new technologies it may be impossible to estimate the time to failure. Don’t ever believe a claim that anything is entirely reliable.

One of the ways to increase safety is to have redundant systems. This is a bit like what we have in a car. There are brakes to avoid an accident. If the brake fails (or if you fail to use it in time) the seatbelt will keep you from going through the windshield. Air bags offer a second level of safety.

Every gas well drilled in La Plata County has redundant systems in case of a blowout. There are annular valves to squeeze the pipe, and rams if the annular systems fail. If any one valve type were perfect, a second set wouldn’t be needed.

There were valves at the Deepwater Horizon drilling site that failed. Perhaps the failure was because the explosion cut the control cables—we don’t know yet what caused the problem.

BP won’t tell me if there was an “acoustic switch” on this drill rig. This type of valve is triggered to shut not by wires but by an acoustic signal. It is required in some areas, but apparently not for rigs in the Gulf. An acoustic switch has the advantage that it can still be closed if the wires to the drilling platform are cut.

This oil spill is a tragedy, but I can think of much worse. What if there were a nuclear accident instead of one with petroleum? As bad as crude oil is to the environment, it is far better than spreading highly toxic radioactive isotopes over the Atlantic!

I view the Deepwater Horizon tragedy as a wake up call: any technology can fail. Large, complex technology can fail disastrously. Even with “failsafe” precautions, disasters happen.

Coal and petroleum fueled the industrial revolution and revolutionized the way we live. Fossil fuels have also allowed our population to grow enormously over the past two centuries. Regrettably, growth cannot continue indefinitely. Continued growth and dependence on fossil fuels are major issues that our society is just beginning to examine.

Renewable energy is one way to avoid large disasters. Most of the electricity for our home comes from solar panels on our roof. Our generating system is small, safe and doesn’t burn fossil fuels. We depend, however, on natural gas to cook and keep us warm.

I draw several conclusions from the Deepwater Horizon experience. We shouldn’t allow any more nuclear power plants. Consideration of drilling in the Arctic Ocean must be stopped. Any further offshore drilling must be carefully supervised by governmental agencies that are also carefully monitored. There must be contingency plans laid out ahead of time for dealing with an emergency such the Horizon’s blowout. Perhaps the most powerful lesson is that we must become less dependent on fossil fuels.

This article may be copied or published but must remain intact, with attribution to the author. I also request that the words “First published in the Durango Herald” accompany any publication. For more information, please write the author at: richard@population-matters.org.